Is AAP the new 'ME'

Finally the much awaited verdict is out and its as astonishing as it is welcome. The ruling Congress party was decimated not only in its traditional bastion of Delhi but also in the major politically significant states of Rajasthan and MP (with some semblance of a fight in Chattisgarh where again it was the BJP which eventually got a majority).But what must have hurt Congress more than the sheer margin of the loss was losing out to the new guy in the game- The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). What was special about this ruling was- basically everything. A new player had never risen so fast in Indian politics and AAP nearly won the elections itself, losing in places by a very small margin. The fact that AAP lost by a close margin of less than 5000 votes in 15 constituencies is surely a wake up call for the BJP, the party with the most seats in Delhi. How they were able to achieve it is going to be a topic of much debate but I feel the essential components are very clear- the call to morality of the voter, the continuous failures of the government, the scams, the emotions carried over from the Anna Hazare, the Ramdev and then the Nirbhaya movements, and of course the ingenious and unconventional marketing techniques and the hard work of the AAP working committee and the hundreds of unpaid volunteers. 

Regardless of Congress denying and downplaying it for too long before finally coming to terms with it, the anti incumbency wave is there. And assembly polls, though not always, do show a trend for Lok-Sabha elections to be held early 2014. The 4 states that went under polling were a clear indication of what is to come if the Indian National Congress is unable to change, and fast. But is it not just a repeat of the 2004 elections? It seems Governments don't need to win elections in modern India- all they need to do is to survive and wait for the ruling party to make the mistakes, which they invariably do, and for the media to lap it all up. Though both the parties may be equally corrupt, the ruling party obviously gets more opportunities to be so. We saw an anti incumbency wave sweep away BJP in 2004. In 2009, Congress was able to avoid any major PR disaster and hence survived. But the current anti-incumbency wave which has undoubtedly been helped along by the persona and perceived success of Narendra Modi, is just history repeating itself like it does in every 2-party democracy around the world.

In this stale political scenario, AAP is indeed a breath of fresh air. And minty fresh it has turned out to be too. As far as popular political wisdom goes, you don't fight the first election to win. You fight it to tell the people that you are there. The second elections are again fought not to win, but to make the other guy lose. The third is when you actually try to win at all. But AAP was able to break the rules, and break them distinctly and clearly. Given the close margin by which AAP lost, they have all the reason to celebrate. But they need to realize that they are not only losing the war (which according to them is winning and creating a government on the national scale), but they also lost the battle. Even after beating every poll estimate (except their own) they were unable to form the government in Delhi- they have done exceedingly well by every standard, but the inability to form a government in Delhi will pinch. And in not being able to form a government with a majority vote share in a small and mostly homogeneous constituency like Delhi- regardless of whether they agree yet or not- AAP is well on its way to the sudden end of the dream of another serious PM candidate for 2014.    

This effectively for me brings the curtains on the national scene for AAP, unless something very drastic happens in the near future. My next and the most important question regarding the current scenario for AAP is this- Should AAP go on to fight once more in a re-election, or should they form the government themselves. While every interviewer was asking the same question to BJP, what astonished me was what they were not asking AAP. The moral victory was not only the hard work of Kejariwal and co. but also a result of the sudden outburst of nationalistic feelings gained during the Anna Hazare movement. No doubt that the scams disclosed and the innovative campaign had its effect, but as important was the time and the public mood. Could AAP have repeated the same results in any place else in the country except in Delhi? Would it have achieved the same publicity had AAP chosen Mizoram or Karnataka as it's debut platform. I find that highly unlikely. The Delhi voter is not only educated, but has also been more politically aware the last few months than in the decades past. They really voted this time based on issues, not on the grounds of caste or creed or race or language.

But the single most important factor in this AAP show was the media. They followed AAP, and its each and every move was publicised and put to immense scrutiny (in which, to their credit, the AAP members fared exceptionally well). But if it comes to re-elections, the timing could become a crucial issue. Given the Lok-Sabha elections early next year it is highly doubtful that Kejariwal, or anyone else for that matters, can hope to come across as a serious contender to Modi or even to Rahul Gandhi. Hopes can last, but pragmatically it'll be very difficult to achieve.

So what happens to AAP if Kejariwal fails to achieve what anyways is nearly impossible? His own party surveys depict how most people who voted for him at the Delhi elections want Mr Modi at Center. All he might be able to do is to cut a little share off of what at the moment looks like Modi's pie. More likely, if he is able to grab a cut, it will be off Rahul Gandhi's vote bank (if, that is, Sonia names Rahul the presidential candidate).What will happen if there is no government at Delhi, and hence no opposition? What will be the role of AAP in such a scenario?

What every reporter seems to be ignoring is the inevitability that the media spotlight will turn away to new and more current situations. The people want to hear their Prime Minister candidates more than just another popular politician, and the media can be cruel when it ignores someone. I don't believe it will be too bad for the country- We don't need a PM who has never been a CM, it most probably would end up as another Manmohan Singh type role with no real bite. While I know there will be many who might consider the inexperience as an advantage, leading a government is something very different different from being the leader of an unconventional movement and the same has been reiterated by revolutionary leaders the world over. So as the spotlight turns away from AAP and more and more towards the battle of the throne, keeping the same sort of visibility would be nothing short of miracle, even by AAP standards. There will in all probability be no more scams left to uncover (as they would have been brought out by AAP for the Delhi elections already if the party had any proof of further chicanery), no more can they hope for Hazare like movements (as apparent from the third anshan which drew very small crowd), and hoping for another gut - wrenching case to flare up the public like the Nirbhaya case did would be just pure sadistic. And as they lose visibility, they will lose popularity- in politics, out of sight really does mean out of mind. And by the time the Lok Sabha elections occur again AAP will have to struggle too hard once again to shake off the persona of the winner of the elections and to stand up for their own again. The momentum would be with the party winning the Lok Sabha elections at that point of time, and it will be a herculean task to wrench the momentum back away from the winner (which at this point seems increasingly like Mr Modi). 

So is it worth the risk for AAP to wait till the Lok Sabha elections end and than again go for the re-election, or should the AAP go forward and form a government right now? The dilemma here is that there is just no way for AAP to compromise with its principals, as it is only the perceived honesty and integrity of AAP that has got them this far this fast. But if they don't form a government right now, getting even the same number of seats with no momentum on their side is not going to be easy, especially when up against a formidable contender and the short memory of the public recently high on the success of the winner. On the other hand, if they are able to form the opposition if BJP somehow forms the government, AAP has already proved that they can do the job of an opposition very well.

Will AAP be able to survive the soon-to-come obscurity? Do they have some more issues up their sleeves that they will be able to exploit politically? Will they be able to reform themselves from a regional party to one of national importance? Will they be able to resonate with all the Aam Aadmi around the country and not just the educated and the politically aware class, and finally be able to justify their claim as the true party of the Aam Aadmi? The roads ahead are going to be risky and full of unknown factors as much for AAP as for any other political party, but we are living in revolutionary times and for an outside politics enthusiast the story ahead is going to be of the supreme interest!

Who still says politics is boring?